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Predict incidence of hand OA at 12 years

Predict hand OA incidence at 12 years

About the prediction tool

This prediction tool allows you to get a probability estimation of the incidence of hand OA at 12 years. This tool may help you modify your clients' risk factors for this condition. The assumption of this model is that your clients' don't already have hand OA when you assess the risk. 

Disclaimer: This prediction model has been developed in a large sample of males and validated in a different subgroup of males. The prediction model for females has been developed on a large sample but has not been externally validated. What this means is that the male model should perform reasonably well in your male clients but not so well in your female clients.

Please refer to the original open-access study and to the synopsis that I created for further information.

How to use the tool

Use the fields and dropdown menus below to calculate your client's probability of developing hand OA at 12 years. There are two different models, one for males and one for females. According to what model you use, you will need to indicate the client's age, height, weight, education, work level, sleep quality, weekly physical activity, and general health.

Age: This refers to the client's age in years. The model was developed/validated in participants from 35 to 70 years old. As a result, predictions for clients outside of this range may be less precise.

Height: This refers to the client's height in metres.

Weight: This refers to the client's weight in kilograms.

Education: This refers to whether the client has a University degree or not.

Work level: This refers to the client's work being heavy or not (self-reported).

Sleep quality: This refers to the client's self-reported sleep problems.  

Weekly physical activity: This refers to the client's level of physical activity (cumulative weekly physical activity). 

General health: This refers to the client's self-reported perception of overall health.

Prediction for males


Probability of developing hand OA in males

Prediction for females


Probability of developing hand OA in females

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